Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x74be…b301 crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$684 (+2%) realized +$774 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate89%226W / 29L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$274
14 days−$765
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$491
weather 3% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.3% -22.5% 58% 21% -32.5%
≤30d 93 -1.1% -10.5% 86% 26% -11.6%
≤90d 249 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 34% -8.6%
all 255 -0.3% -9.8% 89% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 34% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 5% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$123 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$774
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses226 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage95d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $201 $224 +$23 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $234 −$175 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $57 −$26 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$56 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$40 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $72 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $289 +$85 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $183 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $196 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $328 +$76 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $189 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $177 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $193 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $193 +$110 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 05 $194 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $189 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 05 $193 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $187 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 04 $181 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $188 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $92 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $193 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 20m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 22m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $58 28m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $98 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.14 · official $245.99 · 612 history records