Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x74bd…d371 sports 551 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$506 (+0%) realized +$1,632 · open −$1,126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%177W / 372L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$2,009est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3,346
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$499
other 4% −$398
crypto 1% −$1,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 549 +6.6% -3.6% 32% 32% -8.4%
≤90d 549 +6.6% -3.6% 32% 32% -8.4%
all 549 +6.6% -3.6% 32% 32% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 32% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 32% -17.2%
15% -21.2% 30% -25.2%
20% -29.0% 27% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$163 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,707
Realized+$1,632
Unrealized−$1,126
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses177 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,009
Open positions2
Markets (closed)549 / 551
History coverage30d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $3,445 $2,707 −$738 (-21%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 51¢ 0¢ $389 $0 −$388 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 366 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $49 −$48 -97%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $57 −$55 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $53 −$52 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $59 −$58 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $60 −$59 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $61 −$59 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $49 +$385 +785%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $52 +$365 +698%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 07 $49 −$48 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $48 −$46 -97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $48 −$47 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 07 $49 −$48 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $53 −$51 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $57 −$55 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $54 −$53 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $55 −$53 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova Jun 07 $56 −$54 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $61 −$59 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $58 −$56 -98%
ITF Bistrita: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Horia Haita Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Nicolas Oliveira vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 06 $57 −$56 -97%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $64 −$62 -98%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Darya Astakhova Jun 06 $59 −$57 -97%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $66 −$64 -98%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $64 +$383 +596%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $67 −$65 -98%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $66 −$64 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $66 −$65 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alec Deckers vs Bernard Tomic Jun 06 $67 −$65 -97%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $61 −$59 -98%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $66 −$65 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Stefanos Sakellaridi Jun 06 $67 −$66 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Mona Barthel Jun 06 $64 −$63 -97%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 06 $64 −$62 -97%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $70 −$69 -98%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Matilde Jorge Jun 06 $71 −$69 -98%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $73 −$71 -98%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $72 −$70 -97%
ITF Bistrita: Stefan Horia Haita vs Robert Guna Jun 06 $69 −$68 -98%
ITF Bistrita: Kirill Kivattsev vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 06 $67 −$66 -97%
ITF Wuning: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo Jun 06 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $4,051 −$4,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,469 1h
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Bianca Andreescu 9¢ $7 9d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Bianca Andreescu 9¢ $45 9d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki BUY Yosuke Watanuki 10¢ $49 9d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering BUY Mees Rottgering 13¢ $47 9d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering BUY Mees Rottgering 14¢ $5 9d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 14¢ $41 9d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 14¢ $15 9d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 13¢ $53 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 13¢ $25 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 13¢ $0 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 13¢ $6 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 12¢ $24 9d
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva BUY Darja Semenistaja 14¢ $59 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 14¢ $60 10d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 14¢ $61 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 8¢ $49 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 9¢ $6 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 10¢ $41 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks BUY Maddison Inglis 11¢ $6 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks BUY Maddison Inglis 11¢ $43 10d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 14¢ $51 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 13¢ $48 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland BUY Joanna Garland 6¢ $8 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland BUY Joanna Garland 7¢ $41 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi BUY Storm Hunter 14¢ $6 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi BUY Storm Hunter 12¢ $46 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 9¢ $12 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 8¢ $39 10d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert BUY Mert Alkaya 10¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,707.00 · official $2,707.00 (match) · 1766 history records