Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74bd…2cd9 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%101W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$47
14 days−$50
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +33.4% +20.7% 75% 5% -11.5%
≤30d 123 +56.8% +41.9% 82% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 123 +56.8% +41.9% 82% 7% -9.6%
all 123 +56.8% +41.9% 82% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.9% 7% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +28.3% 6% -18.2%
15% +15.9% 6% -26.1%
20% +4.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses101 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage29d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $160 −$24 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $40 −$14 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $40 −$14 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $239 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $80 −$14 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $399 −$9 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $259 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $280 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $140 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $319 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $40 −$13 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $319 −$11 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $200 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $40 −$14 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $280 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $259 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $320 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $90 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $379 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $109 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 61¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $121 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $24 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $13 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 60¢ $26 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 90¢ $40 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $30 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 97¢ $81 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $80 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $39 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $42 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $80 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 97¢ $41 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $40 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 94¢ $40 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $39 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $80 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.45 · official $42.85 · 843 history records