Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x74bd…4ccf other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,237 (-1%) realized −$1,238 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,110per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$19
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$47
politics 39% −$62
sports 5% −$1,150
culture 1% −$3
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 +9.2% -1.2% 11% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 102 +2.1% -7.6% 10% 8% -10.5%
all 106 +2.0% -7.7% 9% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -10.5%
10% -16.6% 8% -19.0%
15% -24.6% 8% -26.9%
20% -32.0% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,427) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$16 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized−$1,238
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,110
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $303 $304 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $287 $287 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,929 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $813 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,292 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,200 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,092 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,611 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $58 +$75 +129%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $907 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,712 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,571 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $58 +$29 +50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,717 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $778 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $716 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 21 $193 $0 -0%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $39 +$27 +70%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $682 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $505 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $506 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $661 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $662 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $718 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $719 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $718 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $719 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $595 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $596 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $680 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $680 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $524 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $525 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $303 9d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $832 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $833 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $812 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $813 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $708 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $720 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $721 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.84 · official $590.84 (match) · 353 history records