Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74bc…5b08 crypto 77 markets active 3h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$423 (+6%) realized +$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate69%53W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$56
14 days+$125
30 days+$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$423
other 19% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 77 -5.7% -14.6% 69% 26% -4.4%
≤90d 77 -5.7% -14.6% 69% 26% -4.4%
all 77 -5.7% -14.6% 69% 26% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 26% -4.4%
10% -22.8% 25% -13.5%
15% -30.3% 22% -21.9%
20% -37.1% 21% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$55 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses53 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage26d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $240 +$272 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$25 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $550 +$660 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$23 +113%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $52 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$25 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $188 +$12 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET May 31 $203 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11AM ET May 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $188 +$12 +6%
XRP Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $184 +$16 +9%
Solana Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $186 +$14 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? May 30 $188 +$12 +6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? May 30 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $20 +$21 +104%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $104 −$103 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $188 +$12 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $52 +$68 +131%
BNB Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $184 +$16 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down on May 29? May 28 $184 +$16 +9%
XRP Up or Down on May 29? May 28 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $184 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $188 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 9d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records