Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x74bb…d1a9 sports 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-1%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$178
14 days−$192
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$2
other 27% +$20
sports 14% −$165
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$9
world 1% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -39.2% -45.0% 0% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 13 -14.3% -22.5% 15% 8% -20.5%
≤90d 42 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 19% -12.8%
all 107 -8.3% -17.0% 30% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 25% -10.4%
10% -24.9% 24% -19.0%
15% -32.2% 23% -26.8%
20% -38.8% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage526d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $205 −$39 -19%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $177 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $170 −$31 -18%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $231 −$12 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$30 +59%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $60 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $345 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $56 +$23 +41%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 14 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 12 $7 +$7 +89%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 12 $12 +$8 +67%
Avalanche vs. Stars Apr 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 31 $1,086 −$10 -1%
LoL: French Flair vs G2 NORD (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 31 $8 +$4 +52%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 31 $8 +$4 +47%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 31 $11 +$9 +85%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $9 $0 +1%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 22 $9 +$4 +39%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Mar 19 $51 −$1 -1%
Kings vs. Devils Mar 19 $12 +$8 +70%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 19 $11 +$9 +85%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $165 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $166 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $167 4h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $205 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $166 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $177 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $34 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $50 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $54 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $25 8d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $36 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $63 8d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 9d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records