Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ba…9ac0 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$797 (-17%) realized −$793 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$76
14 days−$531
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$144
other 24% −$679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.0% +3.1% 50% 44% -5.9%
≤30d 49 +6.2% -4.0% 47% 41% -12.5%
≤90d 49 +6.2% -4.0% 47% 41% -12.5%
all 49 +6.2% -4.0% 47% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 41% -12.5%
10% -13.1% 37% -20.9%
15% -21.5% 35% -28.5%
20% -29.2% 29% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$54 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$793
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage14d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $420 $416 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $402 +$13 +3%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $278 +$135 +48%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $191 −$47 -25%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $130 −$59 -46%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $67 +$63 +93%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $49 +$18 +36%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $87 −$38 -43%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $120 −$33 -27%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $144 −$24 -17%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $124 +$19 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $94 +$30 +32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$19 +147%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$13 -50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $66 −$40 -61%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$39 +142%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 −$14 -34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $17 +$23 +136%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$2 -11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$19 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$86 -84%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$47 +77%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $14 +$11 +77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $141 −$134 -95%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $94 +$53 +56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$75 +365%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$44 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$47 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 −$3 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$27 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$72 -71%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$30 -74%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$58 +190%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $75 +$46 +61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $481 −$441 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $194 −$193 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $91 +$100 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 −$69 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $425 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 86¢ $415 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $402 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $412 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $278 6h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 47¢ $142 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $144 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $191 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 54¢ $71 42h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $70 43h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $130 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $67 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $49 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $49 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $87 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $87 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $120 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $120 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $144 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $124 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $94 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 24¢ $33 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL 99¢ $33 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $13 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $26 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.50 · official $416.50 (match) · 105 history records