Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74b9…9806 politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
politics 24% $0
other 23% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 45 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage301d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 28 $37 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August? Aug 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 85°F or higher on August 25? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 42m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 42m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 30h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $21 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $10 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $7 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records