Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74b7…8b0b sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,489 (-5%) realized −$3,104 · open +$615
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$898est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,466
7 days+$780
14 days−$635
30 days+$1,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,892
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +18.5% +7.2% 50% 44% +0.3%
≤30d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 37% -2.0%
≤90d 71 -14.3% -22.5% 42% 35% -14.4%
all 71 -14.3% -22.5% 42% 35% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 35% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 31% -22.6%
15% -36.7% 30% -30.1%
20% -42.9% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$972) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$634 vs −$525 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,080
Realized−$3,104
Unrealized+$615
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$898
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage44d
Avg bet$657
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ 100¢ $465 $1,080 +$615 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $336 +$136 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $232 +$104 +45%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $301 −$301 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $240 +$750 +312%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $270 −$270 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,190 −$124 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $743 +$55 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $705 −$151 -22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $323 +$676 +209%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $607 +$410 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $489 +$733 +150%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $249 +$239 +96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $350 −$342 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $696 −$686 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $698 −$698 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $194 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $524 −$520 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $770 −$759 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $516 −$507 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $531 +$27 +5%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $205 −$200 -97%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $739 +$977 +132%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $379 +$369 +98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $376 −$3 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $712 −$712 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 3 Winner May 29 $743 +$497 +67%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $811 +$1,942 +239%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 2 Winner May 29 $902 +$94 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 29 $53 −$27 -51%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,707 +$1,429 +84%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $11 +$6 +56%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $710 −$710 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 21 $1,054 −$1,034 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 21 $1,760 +$1,747 +99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 21 $499 −$487 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 17 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $24 +$11 +46%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $1,446 −$1,427 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 3 Winner May 16 $1,656 +$1,329 +80%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,506 −$1,489 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 16 $1,951 −$1,819 -93%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner May 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,343 +$3,639 +271%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $23 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $1 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $1 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $21 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $215 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $2 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $194 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $0 52m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $471 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,080.08 · official $1,080.08 (match) · 536 history records