Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74b7…14e9 weather 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,441 (-7%) realized −$1,441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%186W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$1,614
sports 6% +$201
crypto 1% −$96
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 92% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 92% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 211 -6.8% -15.6% 76% 24% -16.7%
all 250 -7.0% -15.8% 74% 29% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 29% -16.1%
10% -23.9% 17% -24.2%
15% -31.2% 9% -31.5%
20% -38.0% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$57 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses186 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage112d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 20 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 21? Apr 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 21 Apr 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 2 Apr 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 21? Apr 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 21? Apr 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17 Apr 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17 Apr 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 15? Apr 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15 Apr 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 15 $22 +$10 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 15 $17 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 15? Apr 15 $42 +$10 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15? Apr 15 $36 +$11 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 14 Apr 15 $100 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 15? Apr 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14? Apr 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14 Apr 15 $52 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ap Apr 15 $76 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Apr 14 $367 −$367 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14? Apr 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 14? Apr 14 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on April 14? Apr 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 14 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13 Apr 14 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 13 Apr 14 $190 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 13 Apr 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 13? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 13? Apr 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 13? Apr 13 $194 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 13 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 13? Apr 13 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 13 $139 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 99¢ $32 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 44h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 97¢ $32 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 855 history records