Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74b6…d03c crypto 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-3%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%149W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 31% -10.2%
≤30d 183 -8.0% -16.8% 70% 25% -12.3%
≤90d 215 -8.3% -17.1% 69% 25% -12.6%
all 215 -8.3% -17.1% 69% 25% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 25% -12.6%
10% -25.0% 12% -20.9%
15% -32.2% 5% -28.6%
20% -38.9% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses149 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage36d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $33 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 645 history records