Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74b4…13c3
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$45 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$497
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage77d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 1 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $499 $497 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) Perth Glory FC $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $471 +$29 +6%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $456 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $223 $0 -0%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 15 $480 +$10 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 14 $483 $0 +0%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) May 13 $480 +$25 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 12 $479 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $467 −$3 -1%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Slovenia (-2.5) Mar 29 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $196 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$48
world 37% −$3
other 21% +$6
politics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $214 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY MASONIC 94¢ $471 24h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $463 24h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $456 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $134 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $135 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 40¢ $88 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $88 14d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $25 28d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo $25 28d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $5 28d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May SELL Yes $5 28d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $5 28d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May BUY Yes $5 28d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 98¢ $480 30d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $483 30d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $483 30d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY Kahrabaa Ismailia FC 95¢ $480 32d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $479 32d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $479 32d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $463 34d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $467 35d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC $32 49d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC $33 49d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $12 49d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $13 49d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $12 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 6 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 0% -10.5%
all 14 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -28.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -35.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -42.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.91 · official $496.91 (match) · 39 history records