Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ac…00e4 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$9
politics 22% +$2
other 16% −$10
sports 16% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -1.6% -11.0% 23% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 80 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 2% -9.7%
all 81 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 57
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage491d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 -11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $67 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $154 −$4 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $85 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $41 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $29 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $22 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 −$1 -18%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $17 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $15 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $24 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.07 · official $41.70 (match) · 356 history records