Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74ab…602d other 28 markets active 6h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-25%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%6W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$30
sports 32% +$7
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.2% -18.7% 25% 21% -33.8%
≤30d 24 -10.2% -18.7% 25% 21% -33.8%
≤90d 27 -20.1% -27.7% 22% 19% -36.2%
all 27 -20.1% -27.7% 22% 19% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 19% -36.2%
10% -34.7% 15% -42.3%
15% -41.0% 15% -47.9%
20% -46.8% 15% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses6 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage54d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +161%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +649%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -83%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 76 history records