Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74a8…c0ac sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$141 (-6%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$46
other 39% −$108
crypto 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 38% -13.3%
≤30d 26 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 38% -13.3%
≤90d 26 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 38% -13.3%
all 26 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 38% -13.3%
10% -20.1% 35% -21.6%
15% -27.8% 35% -29.2%
20% -34.9% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$49 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$57 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $253 −$225 -89%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $152 +$96 +63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$41 -81%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $112 −$5 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $253 +$157 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$11 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $121 −$6 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $202 −$11 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$75 -49%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $126 +$51 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $36 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $28 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 36h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 89¢ $249 47h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $152 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $106 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $112 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $253 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $108 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $114 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records