Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74a6…eb42 politics 38 markets active 14h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
politics 25% $0
other 21% +$1
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 17% -10.6%
≤30d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 14% -10.4%
≤90d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 14% -10.4%
all 37 +0.2% -9.4% 65% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage466d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 73¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $17 −$4 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $2 $0 -5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +6%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $19 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records