Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74a4…fb64 other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,481 (-35%) realized −$2,481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$2,371
14 days−$2,577
30 days−$2,577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$2,297
sports 6% −$43
crypto 3% −$144
world 1% −$102
weather 1% +$15
finance 1% +$14
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$10
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.3% -23.3% 41% 41% -72.5%
≤30d 46 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 26% -46.8%
≤90d 46 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 26% -46.8%
all 46 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 26% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 26% -46.8%
10% -33.5% 26% -51.9%
15% -40.0% 24% -56.5%
20% -45.9% 17% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$102 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized−$2,481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)46 / 68
History coverage10d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $43 $58 +$15 (+35%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+29%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 66¢ 84¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 32¢ 26¢ $57 $47 −$10 (-18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? No 53¢ 56¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 54¢ 50¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 11¢ 8¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+39%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $40 +$14 +36%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $66 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $41 +$52 +127%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $41 +$28 +70%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $40 +$14 +36%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$36 +378%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $54 +$50 +93%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $44 −$29 -66%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $103 +$97 +94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,084 −$2,079 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$123 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $238 +$61 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$133 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 15 $209 +$21 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,083 +$38 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $16 +$78 +487%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 +$134 +837%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$13 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 26m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 66¢ $41 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $40 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $41 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 11¢ $42 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 7h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 37¢ $19 10h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $40 12h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 86¢ $93 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.46 · official $831.47 (match) · 125 history records