Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x749f…33c6 crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,225 (-15%) realized −$1,150 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%74W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,544
crypto 11% +$72
other 0% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +100.4% +81.3% 80% 80% +4.2%
≤30d 39 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 54% -12.4%
≤90d 139 -11.2% -19.6% 53% 45% -25.0%
all 139 -11.2% -19.6% 53% 45% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 45% -25.0%
10% -27.3% 39% -32.2%
15% -34.3% 31% -38.8%
20% -40.8% 22% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$53 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,150
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses74 / 65
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage76d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 13¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-46%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 27¢ $64 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $94 +$69 +73%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $201 −$129 -64%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $13 +$27 +206%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $15 +$25 +165%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $15 +$24 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $210 −$208 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $308 +$105 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $196 +$112 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $190 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $277 +$120 +43%
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) May 31 $56 −$55 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $202 +$106 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $78 +$21 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $75 −$74 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $62 −$52 -83%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $198 +$67 +34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $147 +$183 +124%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $202 +$76 +38%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +15%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $101 +$91 +89%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $242 +$100 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $188 +$54 +29%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $93 −$92 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $139 +$61 +43%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $32 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $59 +$41 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 13¢ $26 6m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 27¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $163 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 57¢ $94 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 31¢ $47 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 71¢ $47 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $24 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 33¢ $24 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 72¢ $21 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 60¢ $109 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle 100¢ $41 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 32¢ $13 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $40 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $15 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $39 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 38¢ $15 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $210 22d
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 65¢ $202 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $412 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $308 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $196 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini SELL Matteo Berrettini 61¢ $192 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 60¢ $8 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 60¢ $19 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 59¢ $47 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 59¢ $116 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $203 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $397 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Marta Kostyuk 69¢ $277 25d
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 41¢ $56 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.58 · official $26.08 · 246 history records