Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x749e…1090 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,327 (-11%) realized −$16,597 · open +$270
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,158per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2,495est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,470
7 days−$10,185
14 days−$18,276
30 days−$17,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$21,705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -43.0% -48.5% 23% 23% -34.2%
≤30d 31 -22.6% -30.0% 29% 29% -21.9%
≤90d 34 -29.4% -36.1% 26% 26% -28.4%
all 35 -23.0% -30.4% 29% 29% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 29% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 29% -30.5%
15% -43.1% 29% -37.2%
20% -48.7% 29% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$5,021) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,643 vs −$3,936 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$3,221
Realized−$16,597
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2,495
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage363d
Avg bet$4,158
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 24¢ 26¢ $2,951 $3,221 +$270 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $3,969 −$3,952 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $2,782 −$2,777 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $4,334 +$2,816 +65%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $2,804 +$2,799 +100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $2,229 −$2,196 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $3,798 +$10,478 +276%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $2,510 −$2,499 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $2,491 −$2,478 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $5,144 −$5,067 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $3,919 −$3,919 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $1,002 −$988 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1,320 −$1,294 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $3,160 +$2,748 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $5,205 +$9,367 +180%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,757 −$2,691 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $16,019 −$15,872 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $9,358 −$9,237 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $2,373 +$8,888 +375%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $5,478 −$5,379 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $9,835 +$15,624 +159%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $4,987 −$4,916 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $123 −$120 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $2,172 −$2,124 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4,992 +$3,097 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $3,227 −$3,178 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $5,000 −$4,968 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $6,697 −$6,605 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $3,976 −$3,896 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6,602 +$12,990 +197%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $6,257 −$6,134 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $3,296 −$3,233 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $2,532 −$2,475 -98%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 20 $3,925 +$7,618 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 21¢ $92 58m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 21¢ $34 58m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 25¢ $2,385 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 14¢ $74 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 28¢ $350 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $437 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 48¢ $975 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 53¢ $2,117 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 52¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 23¢ $504 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 23¢ $118 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 31¢ $94 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 31¢ $617 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 31¢ $930 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 31¢ $525 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 31¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $8 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $8 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 25¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,221.31 · official $2,801.14 · 310 history records