Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7499…9975 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$44
other 14% +$16
sports 8% −$2
weather 6% $0
politics 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 6% -14.5%
≤90d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 6% -14.5%
all 45 +6.0% -4.1% 29% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 7% -11.8%
10% -13.3% 2% -20.3%
15% -21.7% 2% -28.0%
20% -29.4% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage318d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $124 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $92 −$12 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $101 −$6 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $53 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $109 −$25 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $2 +$5 +335%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $67 +$13 +19%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $72 −$2 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on August 6? Aug 05 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $49 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $49 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $44 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $44 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $16 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $44 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records