Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7497…98e3 crypto 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%170W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$70
tech 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 335 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 37% -20.9%
≤90d 424 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 39% -16.3%
all 424 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 39% -16.3%
10% -25.9% 36% -24.3%
15% -33.1% 33% -31.6%
20% -39.7% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses170 / 254
Open positions0
Markets (closed)424 / 424
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 424 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $13 −$11 -87%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? May 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 935 history records