Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
74 0x7496…3962 crypto 1364 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,993 (-22%) realized −$23,937 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%578W / 782L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,570
world 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 -91.8% -92.6% 7% 7% -97.9%
≤90d 233 -20.0% -27.6% 26% 25% -46.5%
all 1360 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 38% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -17.6%
10% -26.4% 33% -25.5%
15% -33.5% 27% -32.7%
20% -40.0% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$52 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$23,937
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses578 / 782
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1360 / 1364
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $192 $189 −$3 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $48 $36 −$12 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on May 29? May 29 $133 −$125 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 27 $141 −$132 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? May 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4PM ET May 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET May 26 $220 −$220 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 20 $29 −$27 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $28 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5PM ET May 11 $94 +$228 +242%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 07 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 07 $4 +$26 +658%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 07 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1AM ET May 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $78 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $106 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $99 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $45 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on May 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on May 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $131 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $94 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $29 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $9 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $24 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $28 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $40 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $56 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.66 · official $314.66 (match) · 3500 history records