Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

74 0x7495…cfd7 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$21 (+8%) realized +$31 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-12.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-2.9%	-12.1%	56%	56%	-1.8%
≤30d	9	-2.9%	-12.1%	56%	56%	-1.8%
≤90d	9	-2.9%	-12.1%	56%	56%	-1.8%
all	9	-2.9%	-12.1%	56%	56%	-1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.1%	56%	-1.8%
10%	-20.5%	56%	-11.2%
15%	-28.2%	56%	-19.7%
20%	-35.2%	22%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	48¢	$40	$30	−$10 (-25%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$40	+$16	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$16	+$24	+146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$55	+$21	+38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$33	−$33	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$23	+$10	+46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$21	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$40	1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$16	22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$40	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	83¢	$76	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$55	25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$33	34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$23	46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15	46h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.74 · official $39.74 (match) · 17 history records