Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7491…0a77 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+3%) realized +$124 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$8
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$26
sports 7% −$62
crypto 4% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.5% +0.0% 57% 48% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 48% -9.2%
≤90d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 48% -9.2%
all 25 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 48% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 48% -9.2%
10% -13.2% 40% -17.9%
15% -21.6% 24% -25.8%
20% -29.3% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $200 $151 −$49 (-24%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $99 $119 +$20 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $204 +$57 +28%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$4 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $203 −$138 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $203 +$32 +16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $34 −$31 -91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$133 +129%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$19 -74%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$7 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $204 +$93 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 +$17 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 −$159 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $203 +$19 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 −$105 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$54 -54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $96 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $89 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $65 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.25 · official $270.25 (match) · 70 history records