Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7490…d68b crypto 804 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$787 (+5%) realized +$787 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%459W / 345L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$46
14 days−$47
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$538
other 1% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -10.2% -18.7% 60% 54% -14.4%
≤30d 586 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 55% -15.7%
≤90d 804 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 54% -6.0%
all 804 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 54% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 54% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 47% -15.0%
15% -32.5% 35% -23.2%
20% -39.1% 24% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses459 / 345
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage53d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions (244 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$18 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$22 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1667 history records