Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x748e…a579 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-34%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$108
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$107
sports 36% −$83
other 18% −$8
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -62.1% -65.7% 12% 12% -86.8%
≤30d 8 -62.1% -65.7% 12% 12% -86.8%
≤90d 8 -62.1% -65.7% 12% 12% -86.8%
all 51 -34.9% -41.1% 24% 24% -74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 24% -74.3%
10% -46.7% 24% -76.8%
15% -51.9% 24% -79.0%
20% -56.6% 24% -81.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage193d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 10 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-10? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Bastia win on 2025-12-05? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC København end in a draw? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Pennsylvania e Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-09? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Jan 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Jan 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jan 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9? Jan 02 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7? Dec 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $2 +$6 +300%
Will Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Dec 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $1 +$6 +614%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Dec 09 $2 +$7 +354%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $7 +$5 +68%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Raptors Dec 08 $3 +$2 +70%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 08 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev BUY Rublev 74¢ $3 158d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 61¢ $2 166d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 35¢ $25 189d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 71¢ $50 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 189d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes $1 189d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes $1 189d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 189d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 189d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 189d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 189d
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC København end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 189d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 76¢ $1 190d
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Pennsylvania e BUY No 16¢ $1 190d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 190d
Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 190d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 190d
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 190d
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 190d
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 190d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.73 · official $11.73 (match) · 156 history records