Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7486…1175 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
other 21% −$21
tech 10% $0
finance 9% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 8% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.6% 67% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.2%
all 31 -6.9% -15.7% 35% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -12.4%
10% -23.8% 0% -20.8%
15% -31.2% 0% -28.4%
20% -37.9% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage323d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $37 −$3 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $27 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 10 $0 $0 -80%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K August 4–10? Aug 08 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 07 $1 $0 -22%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 40¢ $34 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $37 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $19 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $14 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $33 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $36 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $36 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $36 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $36 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 32d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes 0¢ $0 287d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 317d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 317d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 317d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records