Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7486…bb4f other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$10
world 28% +$6
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +5.3% -4.8% 38% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 13 +5.3% -4.8% 38% 8% -8.5%
all 49 +1.5% -8.1% 31% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.9%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage267d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $85 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 +$5 +68%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 20 $25 −$10 -41%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 13 $1 +$1 +42%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 375000 Oct 10 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 20m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $41 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $40 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $18 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $15 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $8 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records