Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7483…1f07 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$370 (-6%) realized −$368 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate69%87W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$159
14 days+$86
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$157
sports 28% +$55
crypto 14% −$212
world 9% +$33
politics 6% −$37
finance 4% +$2
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 74% 26% -2.7%
≤30d 67 +11.6% +0.9% 69% 33% -10.5%
≤90d 67 +11.6% +0.9% 69% 33% -10.5%
all 127 +5.3% -4.7% 69% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 36% -13.9%
10% -13.8% 25% -22.2%
15% -22.2% 21% -29.7%
20% -29.8% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses87 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)127 / 131
History coverage204d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 46¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $294 +$25 +9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $205 +$92 +45%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $41 −$25 -60%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $138 −$8 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $226 +$10 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$28 +15%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $180 +$20 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $158 +$11 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +192%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$7 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Micky van de Ven be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Crysencio Summerville be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $27 −$18 -66%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $71 +$6 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $59 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +250%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Désiré Doué be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +142%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +493%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +207%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +187%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Wout Weghorst be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jan Paul van Hecke be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $55 +$4 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $131 +$9 +7%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $146 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $230 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $199 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $235 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $320 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $99 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $121 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $8 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $21 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $6 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $297 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $205 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 66¢ $130 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $237 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $12 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $214 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $220 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $191 4d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 11¢ $5 4d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 11¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $44 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $123 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $158 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $130 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $29 5d
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.48 · official $15.48 (match) · 362 history records