Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7481…78a1
sports · 5 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$1 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$5
other 50% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $6 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 52¢ $6 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $9 34h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% -7.4%
≤30d 3 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% -7.4%
≤90d 3 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% -7.4%
all 3 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 67% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 67% -7.4%
10% -11.9% 67% -16.3%
15% -20.5% 33% -24.3%
20% -28.3% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.29 · official $15.29 (match) · 8 history records