Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7480…667f other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-11%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$98
sports 25% +$30
crypto 4% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -12.5% -20.9% 50% 50% -42.6%
≤90d 37 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -21.2%
all 37 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 38% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 38% -21.2%
10% -31.5% 35% -28.7%
15% -38.1% 22% -35.6%
20% -44.2% 19% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage63d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$10 -54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$10 +118%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $40 +$10 +24%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $41 −$17 -42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $52 +$23 +45%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Nuria Brancaccio Apr 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $25 +$23 +91%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $21 −$18 -84%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 19 $51 +$5 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $47 +$5 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 19 $30 +$16 +54%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 18 $23 +$6 +28%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $28 −$23 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $9 +$13 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 20¢ $4 52m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 9¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 5¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 28d
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics SELL San Francisco Giants 98¢ $10 29d
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics BUY San Francisco Giants 74¢ $7 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 30d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 49d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 49d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 52d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 54d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 54d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 54d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 54d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 54d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 55d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 55d
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic SELL Zizou Bergs 71¢ $5 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $6.00 · 99 history records