Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x747d…73b7 crypto 1011 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-7%) realized −$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%545W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$233
14 days+$194
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 64% +1.5%
≤30d 68 -13.3% -21.5% 57% 54% -2.3%
≤90d 838 -10.2% -18.8% 53% 44% -9.2%
all 1011 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 44% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 34% -18.5%
15% -33.2% 25% -26.4%
20% -39.8% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses545 / 466
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1011 / 1011
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1011 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $328 +$253 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$180 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $307 +$108 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $14 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $167 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $154 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $263 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $90 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records