Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x747c…443b weather 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$857 (+1%) realized +$708 · open +$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%134W / 123L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days−$177
14 days−$157
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$59
tech 22% +$1,455
weather 15% −$705
politics 10% +$173
sports 7% +$107
finance 6% +$244
crypto 4% −$305
economics 4% +$1
world 1% −$256
culture 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.8% -24.7% 67% 67% -27.6%
≤30d 21 -8.8% -17.4% 48% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 172 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 43% -13.0%
all 257 -7.9% -16.6% 52% 41% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -8.7%
10% -24.6% 28% -17.5%
15% -31.9% 19% -25.4%
20% -38.6% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$77 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized+$708
Unrealized+$149
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses134 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)257 / 267
History coverage246d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 54¢ 72¢ $349 $464 +$115 (+33%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $82 $101 +$19 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $87 $73 −$14 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $56 $64 +$8 (+15%)
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? No 17¢ 56¢ $20 $63 +$44 (+222%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $48 $61 +$13 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $56 $34 −$22 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $43 $30 −$13 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $402 +$156 +39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $483 −$348 -72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 +$15 +11%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$15 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 +$196 +192%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $35 −$31 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $346 +$6 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $63 +$51 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $55 −$53 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $99 −$97 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 28 $162 +$45 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $67 −$13 -19%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $85 −$8 -9%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $117 −$8 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $102 +$55 +54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $146 +$35 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $101 +$45 +45%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $102 −$74 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $172 +$28 +16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $252 +$34 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28? Apr 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Apr 28 $101 +$22 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 27? Apr 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 27? Apr 28 $56 −$56 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $186 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Apr 28 $96 +$87 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 27? Apr 28 $25 +$123 +493%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $90 +$79 +88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Apr 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? Apr 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 26? Apr 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26? Apr 26 $85 +$89 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 26 $80 +$129 +161%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26? Apr 26 $115 −$114 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 25 Apr 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25 Apr 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 26 $200 +$40 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $358 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $200 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $147 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $132 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $133 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $135 7d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 7d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 7d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 46¢ $41 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $84 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $89 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 12d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $234 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,116.93 · official $1,116.98 (match) · 1296 history records