trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -25.3% | -32.4% | 25% | 25% | -60.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +10.9% | +0.3% | 40% | 40% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +3.7% | -6.1% | 33% | 33% | -17.9% |
| all | 20 | -26.6% | -33.6% | 40% | 25% | -18.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.6% | 25% | -18.0% |
| 10% | -40.0% | 15% | -25.8% |
| 15% | -45.8% | 15% | -33.0% |
| 20% | -51.1% | 15% | -39.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 42¢ | 40¢ | $1,081 | $1,042 | −$39 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $608 | +$482 | +79% |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? | Jun 28 | $163 | −$27 | -17% |
| GTA VI released before November 2026? | Jun 23 | $9 | −$6 | -64% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $2,037 | −$2,025 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,000 | +$1,557 | +156% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 08 | $1,451 | −$464 | -32% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Feb 20 | $100 | +$16 | +16% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? | Jan 27 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 16 | $1,477 | +$132 | +9% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 07 | $467 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 10 | $156 | +$20 | +13% |
| Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? | Sep 12 | $152 | +$94 | +62% |
| Will Adrian Dittman prove he's not Elon Musk? | Dec 31 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Will Biden pardon SBF? | Dec 25 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Dec 22 | $607 | −$150 | -25% |
| Pump.fun disables livestreaming by Friday? | Nov 25 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 05 | $630 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2024? | Oct 20 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| $100m in $WLFI sold before election? | Oct 18 | $150 | −$48 | -32% |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Oct 17 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |