Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7479…d35f sports 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,318 (+3%) realized +$7,008 · open −$690
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%74W / 68L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,506per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$299
7 days+$1,261
14 days+$1,261
30 days+$1,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$2,043
other 34% −$1,945
world 4% +$7,777
culture 1% −$2,066
politics 1% −$102
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 33% 33% +2.5%
≤30d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 33% 33% +2.5%
≤90d 17 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 35% -6.3%
all 142 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 46% -5.4%
10% -14.1% 44% -14.5%
15% -22.4% 39% -22.7%
20% -30.0% 34% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,542) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,140 vs −$1,164 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$3,058
Realized+$7,008
Unrealized−$690
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses74 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)142 / 147
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,506
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,257 $1,139 −$118 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,140 $925 −$215 (-19%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $900 $750 −$150 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $431 $234 −$198 (-46%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,045 −$98 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,514 −$175 -7%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $448 −$26 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $78 +$36 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1,820 +$1,630 +90%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $70 −$9 -13%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $750 −$49 -6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $750 −$53 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $307 −$300 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $682 −$672 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $212 +$182 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 14 $12 +$8 +61%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $71 +$71 +100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 13 $1,014 −$1,011 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $114 +$186 +163%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $264 +$336 +127%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $746 +$559 +75%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $343 −$287 -84%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $984 +$215 +22%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 11 $245 +$105 +43%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 10 $312 +$288 +92%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 09 $3,288 −$2,066 -63%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Mar 09 $925 +$1,023 +110%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $750 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 09 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented b Mar 08 $1,568 −$1,524 -97%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented Mar 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Mar 07 $32 +$90 +285%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Mar 07 $492 +$107 +22%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $994 −$70 -7%
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Mar 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5 Mar 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 05 $912 +$287 +31%
Spread: Bucks (-3.5) Mar 02 $216 +$184 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2,000 +$197 +10%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $1,024 +$63 +6%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 141.5 Feb 26 $3 +$3 +88%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 163.5 Feb 26 $300 +$297 +99%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $559 +$740 +132%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Feb 26 $2,160 +$1,836 +85%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-16.5) Feb 25 $424 −$422 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5 Feb 25 $1,477 +$569 +38%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Feb 25 $200 −$19 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $444 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $386 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,153 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,980 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $909 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $927 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,409 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $423 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,514 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,047 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,820 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 68¢ $78 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $930 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $967 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,001 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $998 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $448 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $61 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $94 6d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $247 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 42d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 26¢ $307 44d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $682 44d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $450 44d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $508 44d
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $212 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 64d
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula BUY Elena Rybakina 94¢ $9 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,058.34 · official $3,058.34 (match) · 941 history records