Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7477…e718 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$146 (+3%) realized +$261 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days+$1,072
14 days+$1,072
30 days+$1,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$595
sports 35% −$152
crypto 2% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.4% -22.5% 28% 28% +18.3%
≤30d 32 -14.4% -22.5% 28% 28% +18.3%
≤90d 32 -14.4% -22.5% 28% 28% +18.3%
all 44 -27.3% -34.3% 25% 25% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 25% +0.3%
10% -40.5% 25% -9.3%
15% -46.3% 23% -18.0%
20% -51.6% 20% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$49 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage239d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-55%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 15¢ $70 $21 −$49 (-69%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 6¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 +$336 +83%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$143 +140%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $186 −$182 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 +$14 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$48 +67%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$9 -30%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$27 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $66 +$813 +1227%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $808 +$389 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $906 +$210 +23%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? Jan 23 $106 −$106 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 23 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Oct 26 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $9 +$11 +127%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Oct 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Pistons vs. Rockets Oct 25 $9 +$11 +130%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Oct 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Oct 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $742 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 86¢ $245 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $102 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $406 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 94¢ $36 30h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 93¢ $139 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 45h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $186 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.55 · official $149.38 · 87 history records