Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7472…650a world 36 markets active 1d ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 12% $0
sports 9% −$3
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 36 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage469d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $135 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Elect May 03 $7 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 29 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$3 -26%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $11 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 +1%
Florida vs. Alabama Mar 05 $12 −$1 -9%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 04 $14 −$2 -12%
Chicago State vs. Long Island University Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $14 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records