Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
74 0x7471…cdac crypto 624 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$245 (-1%) realized −$248 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate74%461W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$8
14 days−$71
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$199
world 17% +$17
other 10% −$16
sports 9% −$87
politics 5% +$11
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 120 -9.9% -18.4% 75% 11% -13.0%
≤90d 410 -1.9% -11.2% 75% 8% -10.7%
all 619 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -10.5%
10% -19.4% 3% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses461 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)619 / 624
History coverage168d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 95¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 78¢ 66¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 14 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$6 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$26 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 11 $58 +$4 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 -50%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 7? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 7? Jun 08 $45 +$5 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 07 $9 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $66 +$9 +14%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $38 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $5 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $40 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $5 7h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $38 7h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $2 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? SELL No 97¢ $39 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $17 9h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 9h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 81¢ $44 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $5 10h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 10h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 10h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 10h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 94¢ $12 11h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $1 11h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $1 11h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.51 · official $236.79 · 2960 history records