Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7470…0411 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
other 21% −$3
politics 10% $0
culture 8% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
finance 4% $0
economics 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 20 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 10% -9.4%
all 49 -3.2% -12.4% 31% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage300d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $112 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $24 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $14 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $3 $0 -11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $2 $0 -17%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 22? Aug 22 $38 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $43 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $42 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $0 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records