Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x746f…3f52
world · 63 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$97 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage298d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days+$12
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $106 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $179 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $182 −$3 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $190 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $159 +$5 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $520 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $186 −$5 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $8 $0 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $111 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $371 +$12 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $290 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $556 −$3 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $160 −$2 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $190 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $147 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $68 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $12 +$78 +631%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $286 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $132 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $98 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $1 $0 -8%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% +$92
other 9% $0
finance 6% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $40 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $106 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $179 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $132 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $6 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $179 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $74 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $108 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $80 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $102 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $167 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $142 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $67 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $57 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $181 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 4% -7.7%
≤90d 26 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 4% -7.7%
all 60 +10.5% -0.0% 27% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 2% -8.0%
10% -9.6% 2% -16.8%
15% -18.3% 2% -24.9%
20% -26.3% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.35 · official $40.32 · 261 history records