Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x746e…3e68 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-30%) realized −$249 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$393
7 days−$366
14 days−$366
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$185
sports 28% −$43
world 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -56.5% -60.6% 25% 25% -58.7%
≤30d 9 -41.1% -46.7% 33% 33% -42.0%
≤90d 9 -41.1% -46.7% 33% 33% -42.0%
all 9 -41.1% -46.7% 33% 33% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 33% -42.0%
10% -51.8% 33% -47.5%
15% -56.5% 33% -52.6%
20% -60.7% 33% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$80 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage16d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $143 −$136 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 −$150 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $166 +$85 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$28 +97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $106 +$86 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $143 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $106 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $117 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.46 · official $39.46 (match) · 18 history records