Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x746d…2db5
weather · 1130 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$384 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$376 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$141
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses644 / 469
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1113 / 1130
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 1113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$8
14 days−$23
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? No 70¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 70¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 75¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 70¢ 67¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 71¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? No 70¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 75¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? No 74¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 75¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? No 71¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 22? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 13? No 70¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26? No 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? No 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? No 72¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? No 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? No 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? No 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6? No 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 08 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$384
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 73¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $7 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 70¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $9 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 72¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 70¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 70¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 73¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? SELL No 70¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 70¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +3.6% -6.2% 66% 63% -8.2%
≤30d 530 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 58% -11.1%
≤90d 1113 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 53% -13.1%
all 1113 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 53% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 53% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 50% -21.4%
15% -29.6% 18% -29.0%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.62 · official $138.52 · 2055 history records