Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x7463…d8b8 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$137 (-43%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$17
world 31% −$88
crypto 13% −$30
sports 12% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -60.6% -64.4% 14% 14% -73.3%
all 16 -53.1% -57.6% 25% 12% -74.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.6% 12% -74.8%
10% -61.6% 12% -77.2%
15% -65.3% 12% -79.4%
20% -68.7% 12% -81.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage94d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 15 $10 +$18 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 27 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 26 $4 +$4 +100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 67d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? SELL No 99¢ $28 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 90d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY No 36¢ $10 90d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 91d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $8 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 93d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.12 · official $125.12 (match) · 33 history records