Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7462…358d crypto 1360 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$498 (-6%) realized −$571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate75%1025W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$43
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$371
weather 10% −$195
other 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -3.3% -12.5% 89% 12% -12.0%
≤30d 256 -5.7% -14.7% 86% 16% -13.6%
≤90d 1360 -7.7% -16.5% 75% 29% -16.1%
all 1360 -7.7% -16.5% 75% 29% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 29% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 15% -24.2%
15% -31.8% 9% -31.5%
20% -38.4% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1025 / 335
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1360 / 1360
History coverage81d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? No 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 17? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17? No 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3167 history records