Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7461…3515 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,023 (-9%) realized −$1,001 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$751
7 days−$1,510
14 days−$857
30 days−$979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$574
weather 13% +$153
world 7% −$784
economics 3% $0
finance 2% +$123
tech 1% −$11
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -72.8% -75.4% 12% 12% -95.6%
≤30d 43 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 30% -24.6%
≤90d 63 -30.1% -36.7% 38% 24% -22.7%
all 63 -30.1% -36.7% 38% 24% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 24% -22.7%
10% -42.8% 22% -30.1%
15% -48.3% 17% -36.9%
20% -53.4% 13% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$89 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 56
History coverage44d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $22 $3 −$19 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $78 −$76 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$25 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $684 −$684 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $135 +$165 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $437 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $209 +$91 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $88 −$86 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 +$121 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $156 +$120 +77%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -84%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $136 +$64 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $138 +$62 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $176 +$324 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $106 −$102 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $309 +$3 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $177 +$123 +70%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$26 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $18 +$82 +444%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $866 −$205 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $818 +$31 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,546 +$43 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,074 +$90 +8%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $636 +$41 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $513 −$368 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $67 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.06 · official $110.06 (match) · 300 history records