Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7461…5cc5 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-26%) realized −$253 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$157
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$257
other 33% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.0% -36.6% 38% 38% -36.1%
≤30d 34 -33.1% -39.5% 35% 35% -39.4%
≤90d 34 -33.1% -39.5% 35% 35% -39.4%
all 34 -33.1% -39.5% 35% 35% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 35% -39.4%
10% -45.3% 35% -45.2%
15% -50.6% 35% -50.5%
20% -55.4% 35% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $179 $171 −$8 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 30¢ 22¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $18 +$16 +89%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P Jun 28 $10 +$8 +80%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $19 −$19 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne Jun 28 $24 −$24 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $37 +$26 +70%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $35 −$35 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe - Map 3 Winner Jun 26 $21 +$15 +71%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$11 +109%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$9 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $11 +$8 +76%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$7 -66%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $36 +$30 +83%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $39 +$22 +55%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $22 −$21 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $40 −$2 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $50 +$32 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 −$20 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $29 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $27 −$26 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $181 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $13 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 22h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P BUY ex-MANA eSports 55¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY SAW 55¢ $19 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 30h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 32¢ $24 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 42h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 44h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 44h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 44h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 55¢ $35 47h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 54¢ $35 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $6 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe - Map 3 Winner SELL MIBR fe 100¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe - Map 3 Winner BUY MIBR fe 58¢ $21 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 5d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $13 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $3 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 5d
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Infinite 39¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.45 · official $177.50 · 54 history records