Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x7460…4c7a world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 22% $0
politics 15% +$1
sports 12% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 39 +1.6% -8.0% 33% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage323d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $112 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $40 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 08 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on Augu Aug 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on Aug Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $40 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $36 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $30 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $10 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $39 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $1 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $40 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $3 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.93 · official $34.93 (match) · 160 history records