Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7460…2936
politics · 41 markets active 1d ago
4.0score
+$13,730 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,345 · open +$4,385
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87,453
Realized+$9,345
Unrealized+$4,385
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses35 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage603d
Avg bet$5,895
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $66,520 $69,942 +$3,422 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $15,949 $16,886 +$937 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $600 $626 +$26 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 01 $608 +$12 +2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 20 $3,510 +$98 +3%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 07 $500 +$8 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 27 $14,375 +$425 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? Feb 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? Feb 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jan 23 $18,022 +$606 +3%
Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election Jan 18 $129 +$4 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $7,824 +$430 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $62,709 +$5,162 +8%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 22 $106 −$87 -82%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $102 +$14 +13%
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Oct 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 18 $12,865 +$1,083 +8%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $3,780 +$215 +6%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 09 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Jul 21 $360 −$25 -7%
Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jul 19 $336 +$3 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 01 $11,001 +$313 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $126 +$6 +5%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jun 02 $4,985 +$221 +4%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th May 03 $257 +$10 +4%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 30 $5,537 +$248 +4%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 24 $953 +$83 +9%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 27 $1,700 +$16 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jan 25 $1,165 +$21 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 21 $3,225 +$74 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 01 $897 +$21 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 01 $1,102 +$18 +2%
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days? Dec 24 $200 −$7 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $481 +$344 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$9,295
world 27% +$2,764
politics 13% +$1,757
tech 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $20 24h
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 94¢ $19 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 33d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United BUY Yes 97¢ $10 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $601 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $608 53d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $3,000 53d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3,608 53d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $508 65d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $5,635 87d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 87d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $1 101d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $14,802 105d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14,800 105d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $3 106d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $5 107d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $573 110d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $101 112d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $10,000 112d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 112d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 113d
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? SELL No 100¢ $101 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $1,007 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 116d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 116d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 116d
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? BUY No 99¢ $100 117d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2,000 117d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 2 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 6 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.2%
all 38 +2.7% -7.1% 92% 5% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 5% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 3% -13.4%
15% -24.1% 3% -21.7%
20% -31.6% 3% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87,453.45 · official $87,453.76 (match) · 205 history records