Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x7460…de6e sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,319 (+5%) realized +$6,213 · open −$894
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%60W / 55L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1,538est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$1,219
14 days+$4,531
30 days+$5,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.9% +1.2% 61% 55% -6.1%
≤30d 109 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 50% -4.9%
≤90d 110 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 50% -4.9%
all 115 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 50% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 50% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 50% -14.0%
15% -20.0% 50% -22.3%
20% -27.8% 50% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,325) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$864 vs −$846 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6,213
Unrealized−$894
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses60 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,538
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage125d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner INOX Division 45¢ 0¢ $895 $1 −$894 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $315 +$22 +7%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 16 $62 +$52 +84%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,250 +$1,250 +100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,187 +$1,012 +85%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1,925 +$1,575 +82%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $234 +$191 +82%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $961 −$945 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,104 +$1,019 +92%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,325 +$1,175 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $1,375 −$1,375 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$11 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $693 +$1,307 +188%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $630 +$630 +100%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,250 +$1,250 +100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $421 −$421 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,325 +$1,175 +89%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $204 +$196 +96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,237 +$1,022 +83%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $824 −$822 -100%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $1,300 +$1,200 +92%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $750 −$750 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $1,459 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $1,560 +$1,440 +92%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $1,760 +$1,440 +82%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 08 $1,831 +$1,573 +86%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $1,615 +$1,371 +85%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $912 +$746 +82%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs RoundsGG (+1.5) Jun 08 $865 −$848 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,113 −$1,111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $600 −$600 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $270 −$268 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $96 +$106 +110%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,375 −$1,375 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $202 +$165 +82%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,200 +$1,800 +82%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $748 −$747 -100%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $317 +$1,283 +404%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $78 +$372 +474%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $638 +$612 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 45¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 44¢ $735 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 50¢ $172 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 41¢ $315 1h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $16 18h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $36 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $60 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $100 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $29 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $741 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $150 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $79 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $21 19h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $710 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 1240 history records