Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7460…985d crypto 968 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-2%) realized −$388 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%482W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$221
14 days+$150
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$919
world 3% −$188
sports 2% +$264
other 1% +$37
finance 0% −$11
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 50% +9.4%
≤30d 116 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 43% -9.4%
≤90d 963 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 46% -13.5%
all 963 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 46% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 39% -21.8%
15% -31.3% 33% -29.4%
20% -38.0% 26% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$388
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses482 / 481
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)963 / 968
History coverage69d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$48 +237%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 +$27 +130%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$9 +56%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 2468 history records